Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change.

نویسندگان

  • M C Urban
  • G Bocedi
  • A P Hendry
  • J-B Mihoub
  • G Pe'er
  • A Singer
  • J R Bridle
  • L G Crozier
  • L De Meester
  • W Godsoe
  • A Gonzalez
  • J J Hellmann
  • R D Holt
  • A Huth
  • K Johst
  • C B Krug
  • P W Leadley
  • S C F Palmer
  • J H Pantel
  • A Schmitz
  • P A Zollner
  • J M J Travis
چکیده

New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species' responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

The Forecast of Economic Welfare and Food Security of Iran under Climate Changes*

Food security and economic welfare strongly depend on agricultural production, the loss of this production can be a serious challenge for food security and economic welfare. Agricultural production is also influenced by environmental and climatic factors so that the variations of climatic parameters can trigger extensive fluctuations in agricultural production. This study classifies climate cha...

متن کامل

The effects of climate change on the distribution of an invasive fish in Iran: Gambusia holbrooki (Girard, 1859)

Today, invasive species are considered as one of the major threats to biodiversity and ecosystem functions. The suitable habitats of these species are expected to be expanded under the effects of future climate change hence it is likely to threaten the existence of native species. Consequently, identifying the current and potential distribution range of invasive species is essential for managem...

متن کامل

The role of plant functional trade-offs for biodiversity changes and biome shifts under scenarios of global climatic change

The global geographic distribution of biodiversity and biomes is determined by species-specific physiological tolerances to climatic constraints. Current vegetation models employ empirical bioclimatic relationships to predict present-day vegetation patterns and to forecast biodiversity changes and biome shifts under climatic change. In this paper, we consider trade-offs in plant functioning and...

متن کامل

Dynamics of habitat changes as a result of climate change in Zagros Mountains Range (Iran), a case study on Amphibians

Climate change is currently considered a serious threat for many species and recognized as one of the most important factors in the global biodiversity loss. Among animal groups, amphibians are known to be among the most sensitive groups of vertebrates to climate change due to their inability to travel long distances, and mountain habitat species are more exposed to climate change pressures tha...

متن کامل

Predicting the geographical distribution of Alopecurus textilis Boiss rangeland species on basis Consensus approach of climate change in Mazandaran province

The climate changes have an important role in distribution of plant species. Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict the changes in species distribution under climate change scenarios. In the peresent study, the distribution of Alopecurus textilis in the current and future climate condition (2050) under the influence of climate change and two scenarios of RCP 4...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Science

دوره 353 6304  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2016